Key Takeaways:
Fragrance has emerged as beauty’s growth engine over the past several years, fueled by a post-pandemic scent boom that shows little sign of slowing. In 2024, fragrance was the breakout category across both prestige and mass, growing the fastest and becoming the second-largest prestige beauty category for the past two consecutive years, according to Circana. Even as luxury faces broader headwinds, fragrance continues to outperform, and is forecast to drive 23% of total beauty growth between 2024 and 2029, growing at a 5.5% CAGR, according to Euromonitor. If the past few years marked the fragrance boom, the next phase may be better described as a fragrance bang.
But what are the trends that will drive fragrance growth in 2026? BeautyMatter tapped industry experts to forecast the trends that they expect to fuel the next wave of consumer demand for fragrance.
Off-Season Scenting
Seasonal trends will be less and less common in 2026, according to Christophe Laudamiel, Master Perfumer at Osmo. “Perfume fans are wearing heavy scents in the summer, fresh scents in the winter,” he told BeautyMatter. This is due to a variety of cultural and lifestyle factors, including the influence of social media, global warming and other climate changes, and increased global travel, all of which are making seasonal scents less and less relevant. Home working and vacation working also blurs seasons.
Raspberry-Forward Scents
The popularity of fruity fragrances has continued for several years, with consumers favoring sweet notes such as cherry and strawberry in perfumes like Tom Ford's Lost Cherry, Burberry Her, and Miu Miu Miutine. According to Karla Woolley, Head of Buying at The Perfume Shop, this ongoing trend is expected to evolve, with raspberry predicted to become the next dominant fruit profile. Several upcoming new launches are expected to spotlight raspberry as a top note, including the recently launched Jimmy Choo I Want Choo with Love.
“We’re seeing more interest in fruit notes that feel bold but refined,” said Woolley. “Raspberry offers sweetness with personality, which makes it perfect for perfumes that feel expressive rather than overly sugary.”
The Rise of “Quiet Fragrance” as a Status Signal
Ashlee Posner, founder and CEO of lucént, predicts a move away from scents with a loud projection towards intentional, close-to-skin scents that still last. “In our lab, we are seeing sheerer structures, ‘less but better’ compositions, and skin-friendly materials that read premium,” she remarked. This mirrors broader cultural signals (like quiet luxury and overstimulation fatigue) while also aligning with regulatory and sensitivity pressures, making minimalism both an aesthetic choice for consumers and a risk-managed formulation strategy for brands.
Neuroperfumery
Alexis Androulakis, one half of the duo behind The Lipstick Lesbians, wouldn’t be surprised if fragrance continues to dominate beauty sales this year. Looking ahead, she sees a deeper convergence between neuroscience and scent, pointing to The Nue Co. as an example of a brand that is well-positioned to connect with fragrance consumers in 2026. Unilever is also leaning into this trend by using neurosignalling to generate science-based insights on the emotional benefits of its products and technologies. Last year, Givaudan announced that it had made a groundbreaking scientific discovery that enabled the company to enhance consumers’ nose receptor sensitivity by up to 100x.
“Brands that are doing more of this sensory neuro connectivity—products that are mood-uplifting and enhancing—are going to be more of what we see, and it may even push into other categories.”
Annie Jackson, co-founder and CEO of Credo Beauty, echoes this prediction, adding that the emotional wellness side of scent is becoming increasingly precise, moving beyond general ideas of mood support into fragrances designed for specific outcomes such as improved focus, deeper sleep, and nervous-system grounding. “This reflects a broader cultural shift toward nervous-system care and the growing desire for small, everyday rituals that create a sense of balance,” she reasoned.
Joy as an Active Ingredient
Similarly, Judith Gross, Vice President of Communication and Branding, Scent, at International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF), notes that consumers are looking for specific emotions, such as joy. In an era marked by instability, joy becomes an act of resilience, she explained, with consumers seeking fragrances that deliver moments of levity, spontaneity, and connection.
“We see rising demand for scents that feel uplifting, playful, nostalgic, and socially connective,” said Gross. “Joy is no longer superficial; it is a psychological need, which the IFF Science of Wellness platform can address with scents designed towards specific emotional or cognitive benefits (mindfulness, joy, relaxation, et.c), with tools combining AI and advanced neurosciences.”
This trend reflects a wider cultural desire for micro-moments of pleasure, reconnection, and emotional well-being. In fragrance, this emerges through gourmand and nostalgic notes reimagined with sophistication; vibrant, colorful top notes that evoke optimism; and multisensory storytelling rooted in humor, community, and celebration.
From Singular Emotions to Emotional Architecture
Lauren Rooney, Vice President of Marketing Excellence & Scent at DSM-Firmenich, takes this trend one step further, predicting that the next frontier of wellness and fragrance functionality will bring a shift “from singular emotional claims to a more nuanced, layered emotional architecture of benefits.”
She cited DSM-Firmenich’s latest innovation, EmotiOn Social Connection, as an example. The new proprietary innovation is designed to help brands develop scents that the company says are “scientifically proven to foster human connection.”
From Demographics to Need States
Reinforced by advancements in areas such as AI and increasing consumer expectations around personalization, Rooney anticipates an evolution from demographic segmentations and fixed identity markers towards a more fluid targeting of communities anchored in shared values and/or need states.
For example, last year, DSM-Firmenich conducted a study on what the company called the “Silver Generation,” or individuals aged 50 to 60+, who have a high share of global spend.
“From this work, we see that fragrance can be a shared language that bridges people across platforms, places, and generations,” said Rooney. “As an example, we see a continued interest in classical notes and the revival of florals.”
Multitasking Fragrances
The Future Laboratory’s annual Future Forecast 2026 anticipates that the future of fragrance is rooted in adaptability, functionality, and personalization. “Innovators are designing scents that evolve over time, offer multiple benefits and invite playful experimentation, transforming beauty rituals into dynamic, sensory experiences,” the report stated.
The Future Laboratory pointed to Rare Beauty’s debut perfume as an example of this trend. It features 12-hour longevity and a bottle ergonomically designed in partnership with certified hand therapists for greater accessibility. Another example is the smart fragrance delivery system developed by Estée Lauder Companies in partnership with technology start-up Exuud, which releases aromatic molecules in controlled bursts, preserving the scent’s delicate top notes and preventing desensitization. Other innovations include Vexa’s peptide-enhanced perfume and Bella Hadid’s alcohol-free, bi-phase fragrance line Orebella, which combines skincare benefits with fragrance.
“These innovations signal a decisive break from fragrance as a fixed identity marker towards products that respond, adapt, and perform,” the report read. “As hybridization accelerates, fragrance is evolving from a static accessory into a living, personalized experience.”
Single-Note Fragrances
For decades, complexity defined fine fragrance, with multi-note scents dominating the market. But in 2026, the industry is beginning to show signs of a major shift, with Laudamiel seeing renewed momentum behind single-note fragrances, known in the industry as soli fragrances, including soliflores, solifruits, solinuts, soliwoods, and soliteas. “Soli fragrances are easier to grasp, to explain, to situate in a fragrance wardrobe, and are very interesting, like a roller coaster or discovery ride of smells and emotions.”
In an increasingly crowded market, single-note scents offer a sense of originality, stripping fragrance back to its most essential expression. According to Laudamiel, soli fragrances are, in part, an adaptation to an influencer-driven ecosystem. “Influencers are lost if exact notes are not provided,” he reasoned.
Experiential Fragrance
Fragrance has been integrated into consumers’ lives outside of their bathroom or vanity for a few years now, but in 2026, Rich Gersten, co-founder and Managing Partner at True Beauty Ventures, predicts a closer convergence between fragrance, interior design, and wellness. He anticipates that fragrance will transcend the body to become environmental mood architecture, curated for focus, sleep, or social energy through wearable scent devices, smart home systems synced to circadian rhythms, and even VR environments with immersive scent technology.
“This aligns with the shift toward ‘scent wardrobing,’ where consumers (especially Gen Z) are already building fragrance collections for specific contexts rather than signature scents, treating fragrance as functional infrastructure for creating the right environment in the moment, not just expressing identity.”
Earthy, Natural Scents
As global urbanization accelerates, fragrance is increasingly being used as a counterbalance to the chaos of city life, and as a tool for grounding, regulation, and psychological escape. In response, Laudamiel expects that fragrance will move closer to scents found in nature.
“Hyper-urbanization worldwide is continuing, [which] explains the rise in figurative, natural-smelling perfumes, [including] tea, foliage, waterfalls, damp mossy earth, all kinds of fruit, etc.,” he said.
Interestingly, this doesn’t necessarily mean that only natural extracts will prevail in 2026 and beyond. Many of the most compelling “natural” fragrances can be derived from synthetic sources, such as artificial intelligence. While the “clean” fragrance movement has increased the popularity of natural fragrances, the unfortunate reality is that using only 100% natural ingredients in all perfumes is unsustainable. This is because of the extensive land, water, and human resources required to harvest, as well as the risk of extinction for ingredients like sandalwood. Fragrance brands can reduce reliance on limited natural resources by using AI to replicate natural fragrances and even create new ingredients based on existing natural scent profiles, opening up an entirely new realm of olfactory possibility.
“New fragrance ingredients coming from AI and new natural extracts coming from foraging geographies introduced by more niche perfumers locally will make the fragrance catalogs more exciting,” said Laudamiel.
Gross echoed this prediction, noting that the escalating global risks—including extreme weather, loss of biodiversity, and fragile ecosystems—are driving consumers to seek out products that are perceived as resilient, useful, and profoundly linked to nature.
“Fragrance is shifting toward regenerative narratives, upcycling, circularity, rewilding, and olfactive signatures inspired by soil, moss, bark, tomatoes, ivy, mushrooms, and storm-washed minerals,” Gross told BeautyMatter.
A Spectrum of Natural and Synthetic—Not a Binary
Posner takes a similar stance, noting that she’s seeing a shift away from “all-natural” as the default directive toward a more pragmatic question: What is safest and least sensitizing for this use case?
“This reframes naturals and synthetics as tools in a risk-managed system and is unlocking better performance, lower reactivity, and more resilient supply chains, while reflecting a broader cultural move from ideology-driven ‘clean’ to evidence-led safety.”
More In-House Perfumers
The art of perfumery is a skill that takes years, even decades, to master, as Laudamiel knows all too well. As AI-driven formulation tools and fragrance analysis databases become more accessible, he expects that the barrier to creating a commercially viable scent will continue to drop. (He caveats this with a note that AI is not taking the place of many perfumers because there are only very few perfumers in the first place.) Laudamiel believes that this increase in accessibility will drive demand for classically trained perfumers among brands seeking to stand out in a very crowded marketplace.
“Real perfume composers with lots of experience will enter more and more brands rather than working at fragrance houses,” he indicated. “Brands will realize they need credibility, artistry, and authenticity. This is very hard to achieve without a perfumer in the house. It would be like having no fashion designer in a house.”
Allergen-Aware and Sensitivity Strategies
Taking a cue from skincare, fragrance consumers in 2026 are more ingredient-conscious than ever before. As EU fragrance-allergen labeling expansion hits key milestones in July 2026, brands are moving toward proactive reformulation rather than reactive compliance, which is reshaping how briefs are written and how formulas are built under real-world constraints.
“Fragrance development is shifting from 'make it smell great and look at ingredients later' to structure-first formulation engineered to minimize (or strategically manage) declarable allergens, sensitizers, and restricted materials without sacrificing the olfactive brief,” noted Posner.
At the same time, “sensitive by design” is emerging as a new premium positioning. Rather than relying on post-hoc claims like “dermatologist tested,” brands are increasingly foregrounding allergen strategy, irritant minimization, and cumulative exposure thinking throughout development.
“As labeling expands and consumers have access to infinite amounts of information, the winners will be the brands that can validate and credibly say ‘We engineered this for low sensitization,’ not vague black-box reassurance,” said Posner.
Increased Consolidation
The global fragrance market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with a shrinking number of powerful licensors. Many of the fragrance houses headquartered in Paris control an outsized share of commercial brands, including those of non-French origin. As this consolidation deepens, Laudamiel predicts, the result will be a gradual leveling of luxury.
“We will see the further mass distribution of luxury brands owned by perfume licensors or investors with not much genuine passion or knowledge for perfume,” he said. “This system, based as well on several smokescreens, might even implode sooner rather than later, though perhaps not in 2026.”
Alcohol-Free Fine Fragrance Formats
Posner anticipates a meaningful uptick in demand for alternatives to alcohol in fine fragrance, including solids, oils, and, especially, more sophisticated water-based formats.
“2026 will reward brands that can deliver the full fine-fragrance experience from performance and aesthetics to stability, without relying on ethanol as the default delivery system.”
Sensorial Chaos and Taboo-Breaking Creativity
In 2026, fragrance will embrace a new wave of chaotic, irreverent creativity fueled by a cultural desire to break away from social rigidity and rationalism, according to Gross. Consumers are increasingly craving expressions that feel unfiltered, instinctive, and boldly imperfect—a response to heightened political dissatisfaction and social fatigue. This trend could signal a move away from “safe” olfactory territories toward provocation, unpredictability, and sensory impact.
“This movement taps into a broader cultural shift toward anti-perfection, rule-breaking aesthetics, and liberated self-expression, also embodied in the new algorithm rules of Instagram,” said Gross. “In perfumery, this translates into unconventional accords (think: pickled, spicy, electric, or fermented facets), maximalist structures, and playful distortions of classic fragrance architecture.”
